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科學家認為氣候變化只要各國努力還在可控范圍之內

Scientists believe that climate change is still controllable as long as countries make efforts

文/段躍初

Author: Duan yuechu

全球氣候變暖會導致海平面上升，使降水重新分布，從而改變當前的世界氣候格局；其次，全球氣候變暖影響和破壞了生物鏈、食物鏈，帶來更為嚴重的自然惡果。氣候變暖使大陸地區，尤其是中高緯度地區降水增加，非洲等一些地區降水減少。有些地區極端天氣氣候事件（厄爾尼諾、干旱、洪澇、雷暴、冰雹、風暴、高溫天氣和沙塵暴等）出現的頻率與強度增加全球氣溫變化直接影響全球的水循環，使某些地區出現旱災或洪災，導致農作物減產。

Global warming will lead to the rise of sea level and the redistribution of precipitation, thus changing the current world climate pattern; Secondly, global warming has affected and destroyed the biological chain and food chain, bringing more serious natural consequences. Climate warming has increased precipitation in the continent, especially in the middle and high latitudes, and decreased precipitation in some areas such as Africa. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events (El Ni ñ o, drought, flood, thunderstorm, hail, storm, high temperature weather and dust storm, etc.) in some areas have increased, and the global temperature change has a direct impact on the global water cycle, resulting in drought or flood in some areas, resulting in crop yield reduction.

氣候變化的致命后果在今年變得更加明顯，創紀錄的熱浪、洪水和野火奪走了風千人的生命，也使我們的救災人員的能力受到了限制。聯合國氣候小組早期的高端排放情景（稱為RCP 8.5）發現，到2100年，全球氣溫可能上升5°C以上。

The deadly consequences of climate change have become more obvious this year. Record heat waves, floods and wildfires have claimed thousands of lives and limited the capacity of our disaster relief personnel. The early high-end emission scenario of the United Nations Climate Panel (called RCP 8.5) found that the global temperature may rise by more than 5 ° C by 2100.

鑒于日益嚴格的氣候政策以及太陽能和風能成本的直線下降，我們即將見證可再生能源發展的絕對繁榮。過去以低估可再生能源增長而聞名的國際能源機構現在表示，到2026年，全球產能將增長60%以上。屆時，太陽能、風能、水力發電大壩和其他可再生能源設施將與化石燃料和核電站的全球產能相匹敵。

In view of increasingly stringent climate policies and the sharp decline in the cost of solar and wind energy, we are about to witness the absolute prosperity of renewable energy development. The International Energy Agency, which used to be famous for underestimating the growth of renewable energy, now says that global production capacity will increase by more than 60% by 2026. By then, solar, wind, hydroelectric dams and other renewable energy facilities will rival the global capacity of fossil fuels and nuclear power plants.

多年來一直以低于個位數增長的新型電動汽車銷量也在迅速增長。據BloombergNEF稱，隨著汽車制造商推出更多車型以及政府制定越來越激進的政策，今年汽車銷量將達到560萬輛左右，比2020年的數字增長80%以上。電動汽車從2019上半年的2.8%的銷量增長到了2021上半年的7%，在中國和歐洲的漲幅尤其大。該研究公司預計，到2030年，零排放汽車將占所有新購車量的近30%。與此同時，有很多技術進步的跡象。研究人員和公司正在尋找生產無碳鋼和水泥的方法。以植物為基礎的肉類替代品比任何人預期的更快變得更美味、更受歡迎。企業正在建造越來越大的工廠來吸收空氣中的二氧化碳。根據PitchBook的數據，對氣候和清潔技術初創公司的風險資本投資達到了前所未有的水平，截至第三季度，投資總額超過300億美元。這里有一個重要且違反直覺的發現：雖然危險的極端天氣事件變得越來越普遍或嚴重，但世界似乎在讓人們遠離這些事件方面變得更加安全。近幾十年來，自然災害造成的平均死亡人數普遍急劇下降。“我們有更好的技術來預測風暴、野火和洪水；有更好的基礎設施來保護我們自己；有更好的網絡在災難發生時進行合作和恢復，”

Sales of new electric vehicles, which have been growing below single digits for many years, are also growing rapidly. According to Bloomberg Nef, as carmakers launch more models and the government formulates more and more radical policies, car sales will reach about 5.6 million this year, an increase of more than 80% over the figure in 2020. The sales volume of electric vehicles increased from 2.8% in the first half of 2019 to 7% in the first half of 2021, especially in China and Europe. The research company predicts that zero emission vehicles will account for nearly 30% of all new car purchases by 2030. At the same time, there are many signs of technological progress. Researchers and companies are looking for ways to produce non carbon steel and cement. Plant based meat substitutes become more delicious and popular faster than anyone expected. Enterprises are building larger and larger factories to absorb carbon dioxide from the air. According to pitchbook, venture capital investment in climate and clean technology startups reached an unprecedented level, with a total investment of more than $30 billion as of the third quarter. Here is an important and counterintuitive finding: although dangerous extreme weather events are becoming more and more common or serious, the world seems to be safer in keeping people away from these events. In recent decades, the average death toll caused by natural disasters has generally decreased sharply. "We have better technology to predict storms, wildfires and floods; better infrastructure to protect ourselves; and better networks to cooperate and recover in the event of a disaster."

美聯社消息稱：數據世界研究負責人漢娜·里奇（Hannah Ritchie）在英國《連線》雜志中最近一篇的文章中引用了她自己的研究指出。通過對社會環境、海洋環境、陸地環境、生產制造環境等氣候適應措施的正確投資，我們有能力應對我們將面臨的一些的風險。然而，排放溫室氣體最多的富國必須提供財政援助，幫助窮國加強防御。向天然氣、太陽能和風能以及越來越多的電動汽車的轉變都得到了每個國家的政府的支持，包括貸款、補貼和其他將基礎技術推向市場的政策。而業務驅動的擴展過程迅速降低了這些技術的成本，幫助它們變得更具吸引力。越來越具有競爭力和商業友好性的清潔替代品有望簡化進一步氣候行動的政治。如果越來越多的國家制定越來越激進的碳稅政策、清潔能源標準或為研究和示范項目提供更多資金，我們將更快地降低排放。

According to the associated press, Hannah Ritchie, head of data world research, cited her own research in a recent article in Wired magazine. Through the correct investment in climate adaptation measures such as social environment, marine environment, land environment and production and manufacturing environment, we have the ability to deal with some of the risks we will face. However, the rich countries that emit the most greenhouse gases must provide financial assistance to help poor countries strengthen their defenses. The shift to natural gas, solar and wind energy and more and more electric vehicles is supported by the government of each country, including loans, subsidies and other policies to bring basic technologies to the market. The business driven expansion process quickly reduces the cost of these technologies and helps them become more attractive. Increasingly competitive and business friendly clean alternatives are expected to simplify the politics of further climate action. If more and more countries formulate more and more radical carbon tax policies, clean energy standards or provide more funds for research and demonstration projects, we will reduce emissions faster.

在蘇格蘭格拉斯哥聯合國氣候變化大會（COP26）為全球社會提供了拯救自己的絕佳機會。每個國家都將提交其國家定義貢獻（NDC）或減少導致全球變暖的溫室氣體排放量的計劃。如果這些計劃達到必要的目標，人類可以將全球氣溫上升限制在1.5攝氏度，避免最壞的氣候狀況。在地球日領導人峰會期間，拜登政府宣布了一項雄心勃勃的改革計劃，到2030年將溫室氣體排放量比2005年減少50%。拜登的重建更好議程（包括人類基礎設施和氣候計劃）的通過對實現這一目標至關重要。拜登還闡述了以氣候危機為中心的“中產階級”新外交政策。拜登政府認為氣候危機是主要的國家安全威脅，外交政策是國內政策的延伸。全球合作和人類團結對于減少溫室氣體排放、援助全球南方脆弱和資源匱乏的國家以及應對日益嚴重的氣候難民危機至關重要。預計到2050年，這場危機將惠及2億人。

In Glasgow, Scotland, the United Nations Climate Change Conference (cop26) provides a great opportunity for the global community to save itself. Each country will submit its national defined contribution (NDC) or plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions leading to global warming. If these plans achieve the necessary goals, mankind can limit the rise of global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius and avoid the worst climate conditions. During the Earth Day leaders' summit, the Biden administration announced an ambitious reform plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 compared with 2005. The adoption of Biden's agenda for better reconstruction, including human infrastructure and climate plans, is crucial to achieving this goal. Biden also elaborated on the new "middle class" foreign policy centered on the climate crisis. The Biden administration believes that the climate crisis is a major national security threat, and foreign policy is an extension of domestic policy. Global cooperation and human solidarity are essential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, assisting fragile and resource poor countries in the global South and responding to the growing climate refugee crisis. It is expected that by 2050, the crisis will benefit 200 million people.

毫無疑問，如果人類要拯救自己和自然，世界上兩個最大的經濟體和溫室氣體排放國——美國和中國——之間的合作至關重要，在氣候問題上的合作和在其他地方的對抗，很難想象這兩者是如何可能同時存在的，特別是在生存性氣候危機日益加劇的情況下。這突出了在這個關鍵時刻可能爆發的新“冷戰”所固有的危險。

There is no doubt that if mankind wants to save itself and nature, the cooperation between the world's two largest economies and greenhouse gas emitters - the United States and China - is very important. It is difficult to imagine how the two can exist at the same time, especially in the context of the increasing survival climate crisis. This highlights the inherent danger of a new "cold war" that may break out at this critical moment.

所以，我們需要更積極的壓力和更積極的氣候政策來應對氣候變化的威脅。但歸根結底，我們必須發明并構建解決問題的方法。

Therefore, we need more active pressure and more active climate policies to deal with the threat of climate change. But in the final analysis, we must invent and build solutions to problems.

作者是北京中國未來研究會會員。

The author is a member of Beijing China Future Research Association.

作者姓名：段躍初 Duan Yuechu